C2.4 Horizon scanning

Horizon scanning guide [6]

What it requires. A scanning routine with declared drivers across the social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal and ethical dimensions, run on a stated cadence and recorded on a radar with a trail. Each signal is assessed for its speed: a slow risk, one that will take quarters to arrive, goes to the register as a scenario; a fast risk, one whose state can change inside a reporting period, goes to continuous monitoring with an indicator and a threshold.

Where it comes from. The practitioner guide to horizon scanning [6] gives a six-step method, a radar, the list of drivers and the idea of clockspeed, the observation that risks differ in how fast they move and that a slow one and a fast one need different machinery. It appears nowhere else in the twenty-seven sources.

What it reconciles. Every framework asks for emerging risks to be identified and most organizations answer with a page headed “emerging,” in which a decade-long demographic shift sits beside a currency that moved last week. Clockspeed separates them and settles which layer owns what: the register and L3 own the slow risk, the indicators of L5 the fast one. The radar is read against the external lists of C2.5.