C3.8 Climate and physical scenarios

Climate scenarios [13]; hazard profiles and disaster framework [24]

What it requires. Where a scenario concerns climate or a physical hazard, it uses reference scenarios on a long and a short horizon, keeps transition variables apart from physical ones and does not sum acute and chronic damages, because they come from different models with different uncertainties. A physical scenario is parameterized as hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity, with the hazard carried by its persistent code. Scenario variables are joined to the organization's own exposures through a sector mapping. Every external input carries its version and its retraction status, so that a run which still uses a withdrawn input says so on every page it produces.

Where it comes from. The central-bank network's scenarios [13] are the only numbers in the set that come with their own genealogy: every variable traces to a model, every model to its inputs. Transition and physical variables are kept apart; short-term scenarios published in 2025 carry sector-level default probabilities joinable, through a 2026 mapping, to an industry code. When the paper behind the chronic-damage function was retracted in December 2025, the network said which outputs were affected and announced a revised method. The disaster framework [24] supplies the four-term decomposition and the coded dictionary.

What it reconciles. The scenarios resolve at the scale of a central bank, countries and decades, and a lender needs to know whether a particular warehouse floods; the hazard dictionary and local data supply what the scenarios lack, and the component requires both. It also turns one episode into the framework's seventh principle, that currency is a field. The scenario object holds its “version and retraction status of inputs” field because of this component and no other.